Day: May 4, 2021

Is the Scientific Method Broken? Uncertainty, Likelihood, and Clarity

(Essay found in Nesselroade & Grimm, 2019; pgs. 166 – 167) An aspect of probabilistic thinking that seems to have been lost in most modern discussions of probability, and which may be partly responsible for the reproducibility problem in the social and medical sciences, is the realization that uncertainty is not merely the quantification of likelihood, but is also influenced by a clear understanding of the situation; let us use the term “clarity” for a lack of a better one. Now “likelihood” (or “risk” as it is sometimes called) is usually understood as something that can be quantified numerically; like

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